Opinions wanted: When will the auto industry recover?

the car industry will recover when the manufacturers start producing vehicles with bodies that are like muscle cars with performance to match. Most every car looks the same (like a used bar of soap)

The Car industry will not recover until 2012 at the earliest. The biggest driver was credits and they have dried up almost completely. Coming 3 years banks need to build up their own financial position again and they can not use car loans on their balance sheets so they will only accept them if interest rates are high and risk is low. So little Americans will qualify unfortunately. Once their balance sheets have been cleaned up banks will slowly start again in reducing the requirements for a successful application for credit by joe 6pack.

It will be bargain time for all Americans (if there are still) who can pay cash for their car until then. Furthermore I think that car companies have to innovate even more on fuel efficiency and cost of operation. I think they will make major steps in the next 2-3 years but before that is available to the public we are talking 2012/21013 at the earliest…..

Aaron, I can’t see The American Auto Manufacturers back on their feet for another 3-4 years. I mean GM has the Camero, Ford has the SHO, ( really $ 48,000 for a Taurus?) And Chrysler has a really tough time doing anything right. Look at the Genesis, What value for money! Look at the clean oil burners coming from over seas. All of these excellent ideas are not coming from the Big Three ????Why ???? I just don’t get it. We can put fake boobs on a woman, but can’t make a damn car that is great value for the money that people really want to drive, and actually own.
Sorry Aaron I have absolutely no faith in the American Car Makers. They have burned all their bridges with me.

I believe it will take 3-4 years for it to recover because the economy will take that long to fully recover. People want to know that their job and financial security are secure before they make big purchases.

The American auto industry needs to continue to improve their quality, warranties and prices concerning autos. Affordable hybrids with nice amenities….affordable electric cars with longer ranges between charges…economy cars that are not just boxes with four wheels. We see some examples of these starting to occur but the pricing is still too high for these vehicles.

American people want to see more eco changes but not lose the power and performance….not to mention “hot” styling. We need to find a way to give people choices that will not only get them where they’re going but with style, speed, and, most of all, less fuel!

Once this occurs, then the auto industry will turn around….and quickly!

Not until the economy recovers fully will consumers have the cash or the willingness to buy new cars. It’s as much fiscal as psychological for the consumer. There’s plenty of credit out there to buy cars, but the rules are a bit more stringent. Lack of job security will scare away buyers, big time.
We were faced with the same level of unemployment in 83, when Regan opened up the financial rules for a freewheeling economy. More rules were bent and dismissed by the subsequent administrations, both Democrat and Republican. Now we’re paying the price with a deeper recession than ever. A longer period of recovery will be needed. Hopefully we’ve learned our lesson and don’t relax the rules we’re putting back in place. I’m hoping that in 3-5 years car sales domestic and other shall respond in new successes.

NEVER… and by that I mean I believe we will not see the craziness that was the American buying habit of the last decade. I think people have come to realize that they don’t need to buy a new car every 3 years. And that latest and greatest model with 2 more HP and an extra cup holder doesn’t warrant the purchase of a new vehicle. We have learned from our mistakes and will no longer be the bleeding edge car crazy society we once were.

Now I do believe the car industry will recover as a smaller leaner operation with fewer offerings at higher quality standards. But the industry will never be the goliath it once was. Then again, I could be wrong and we could just as easily see the same cycle repeat itself in 30 years since that seems to be the trend.

Well I see two problems.
1. People don’t believe that the US car companies can make a good small car.
2. So far the US car companies have not made a really good small car.
None of the big three’s small cars really thrill me. I hate to say that because the US car companies are making some very good cars but just not good small cars.

The Ford Fusion is a very good car. Now Ford needs to make a very good small car.

When the auto industrie stops sucking off the teet of America and stands up on its own. Bailouts are B.S. If we dont have the means to buy a new car, we should save for it and not expect help from the Obamanator. This is the sure way to recovery.

You’re right DFI…at least I hope we’ve seen the last of of this crazy conspicuous consumption of our adult toys, like latest/greatest model of BMW or whatever.
Now where did I put that brand new I-Pod I just got?
As for Bill…The auto Industry GM & Ford can stop sucking the teat of the the USA right after my retired dad stops cashing his Social Security, returns his Medicare card, I refuse to take that disability check when I’m injured, when my son stops filing for unemployment when he gets laid off again…

Aaron,
I could be way off base here, but I think this is the root of the problem and it goes beyond just the auto industry. They are however a good example of why the economy may not recover for another 3-4 years.
I believe the Big 3 are starting to turn out higher quality, smaller, fuel efficent cars, and its a start, but I believe the problem rests with the government again and how they can help produce manufacturing jobs in the United States to maintain a productive industrial base starting with the auto makers. I know it’s not always up to the government, but the bottom line of business is making money and right now they need all the help they can get.
America has become a consumer nation. We buy goods and services that are now produced primarily in other countries like China, Indian, Mexico for just a few examples.
It’s my understanding that companies can receive a certain percentage of a tax break for having their goods manufactured in another country. With the trade agreements that countries receive for these manufacturing jobs they also agree to import/export certain percentages of goods from the United States.
If you look at any factory sticker placed on an automobile it will tell you that a certain percentage of parts on the car were produced in another country.
Now I believe the government needs to start repealing these tax break incentives for companies to ship manufacturing jobs to other countries. Give the tax breaks to companies who produce a larger amount of manufacturing jobs right here at home. Not all these jobs have to come back to America, but it would be nice to see some of the TARP loans recieved by the auto industry go to create new jobs not just bring back old ones lost to slump in auto production.
The auto industry may be a good place to start the process, but there will be a multitude of problems like dealing with the UAW in creating these new jobs, losing the ability to send certain goods to other countries, having countries lose favored trading status and how will repealing the tax breaks effect the manufacturing of Honda, Toyota and other cars that have factories here now with parts that are produced in other countries.
It’s a really complicated issue and I really don’t know the in’s and out’s of the entire thing, and the problems changing it would create. The bottom line is that the auto industry and other American industry needs to bring, not all, but more manufacturing jobs home if they hope to have a long term recovery and not just short-term gains in the next 4 years.

I’m not sure it will ever get back to the level it once was no matter what the Big Three do to come up with smaller more efficient cars. We tried that once and it didn’t work as they just kept getting bigger and thirstier again. With our leaders present spending policies we may never see the robust economy we all enjoyed for quite a few years. If you can find a good job they’re going to tax you to death.

It will recover at some point. It might be in 3-5 years, or maybe a bit more. The economy is like a pendulum. We go through good times, then some bad times, and then good times again.

The question is, what will the auto industry look like when it recovers? The domestics have an opportunity to do some really good things if they don’t squander it. Time will tell.

I come from a long way back with the automobile. I’m 62 and I’ve been around cars all my life. I bought and tore down to the ground my first car by the time I was 13. I love cars, I’ve worked on them, I’ve raced them on the street and on the track. I’ve sold them at dealerships and I have designed them. What I see in the auto industry is that they have lost the connection with the American people. The boys in Detroit seem to be trying to figure out, what is going to be the next fad or what everybody else is doing rather then being the leader the way they use to be. We are Americans and we want American cars. What we don’t want is copies of Asain cars. We don’t want front wheel drive cars. We want our cars balanced. We want trunks. We don’t want to have to fold down the rear seats to put our stuff in. We are not miniaturized. We are larger than life. We travel. We take lots of stuff with us. We want cars that fit our life style. We don’t want their best guess.
The American car, at one time, was the most sought after car in the world. We were leaders in the market. We were leaders in design. We were leaders in development. What happened to our American know how. I think it died on a platform. Or the lack there of, to adapt the platform to an American Idea. I feel that the boys in Detroit have lost the challenge of vision and have reduced themselves to mere shadows of what they once were.
When will the auto industry come back. When the visionaries come back.

When government gets out of the way of citizens. I just bought the Lexus 450h. Smallish, but it suits my needs. Not one American made car does. First it was their arrogance, now it’s their desperation.

I believe the companies should become more like Subaru: ie: builders of more niche vehicles instead of trying to be everything to everybody. Cadillac seems to be doing that now. Chrysler builds a great truck, and great mini-vans. Their sedans-decent, but not so great. GMC is another good niche-builder. But even they are remarketing other GM models. Ford and Chevrolet are the only across the board that seem to have it all together. Subaru was the only manufacter that has showed an increase in sales in the past couple of years.

Don, I didnt know that the auto bailouts had anything to do with your dads social security checks.
I guess Im just uninformed about the bailouts for the AUTO industries. No bailout no social security check, now I have it. Most people who traded in there old car that was most likely was paid for, now they have a payment that they most likely didnt need. On top of that they get to pay the taxes on the 4500. that the Gov. was so kind to give them. Sounds good to me. NOT

Craig:

Let’s see….I’m an American, and in my car, I want:

- a hatchback instead of a trunk so I can carry bulky items
- rear seats that fold down to enlarge my cargo space, and maybe even a folding passenger front seat so I can haul long lengths of lumber home
- front wheel drive so I have better traction in the snow
- a smaller vehicle for fuel efficiency and easier parking

What Detroit has failed to realize is that American tastes have changed…many of us don’t want large sedans like our parents had. Foreign makes saw this change and provided product, Detroit made SUVs. Game over.

I will agree with you that Detroit lacks vision. The last time a glimmer of vision was shown was when Roger Smith came up with Saturn. By the time the cars were on the market, Roger was gone, and his successors had no vision. Saturn was left to slowly die on the vine.

All three American automakers have it well within their ability to provide reliable cars to the public that are also APPEALING. The problem is that when you try to produce a product that appeals to the widest audience possible (since that’s “good business sense”), you end up with a bland vehicle devoid of anything that incites an emotion. Look at a Chevy Impala, Ford Focus, or Ford Fusion and tell me if they *really* stir up an emotion in you.

Until they take it upon themselves to”think different” and take some chances, cars like the Scion xB, Kia Soul, and Nissan Cube will continue to sell well while competent but bland cars like the Ford Focus and Chevy Cobalt rot on dealership lots.

Aaron I have thought about this over and over. What is it about the US car makers and their cars that just drives me back to the European and Asian manufactuers ? I have read that some Ford and GM products are right up there with the build quality of the aboved mentioned. So what gives? Well here it goes:
When I walk into a Ford, or GM Dealer, I know going in that what ever I buy has been built by UAW members. UAW members with extreme legacy costs. UAW members who until recently were paid not to work INDEFINITELY under the Job banks program. Well who in the hell do you think pays all of that ? The consumer, me, thats who. These folks according to everyone except UAW members are overpaid to begin with. So from walking onto the parking lot of either Ford or GM, I am going to have to pay MORE money for the car because the UAW was involved in the construction. That really does not sit well with me. Ford builds a very nice car by all accounts, the Ford Fusion. But…..it is not built in this country, it is built in Mexico. Why is it built there? Because if it was built in this country at UAW wages, it would be a $35,000 car instead of $25,000 car. Are you starting to see a pattern here. So I don’t mind spending 35K or even 45K for a European or Japanese made vehicle, because I know that there will be no UAW Legacy, or excessive wage costs built into it, meaning same amount of money, but more car for the same money. So Just my opinion here, until you remove the UAW from the car manufacturing loop, Ford, GM, and Mopar will will always have those costs hanging over the purchase price, which means US consumers will never get the same quality car at the same price that they can get from Japan or Europe.

Do we not understand Detroit makes crap? Fugly falling apart crap? That their design life is less than 100k miles? When the “cash for clunkers” program was in effect Chrysler didn’t have any cars good enough to qualify? When Bush gave GM 30 Billion dollars last year it was to pay off enough of the 200 billion debt to make it’s assets worth buying at the bankruptcy sale? And that GM needed to go bankrupt because their warranty issues was draining them?
What we have is too much entitled management and not enough business oriented leaders. Maybe if they made an adequate product more in line with what the customers want there wouldn’t be this problem. They should have stuck with Saturn.

> I know going in that what ever I buy has been
> built by UAW members. UAW members with extreme
> legacy costs.
Again, we don’t seem to understand this. All the hourly people pay into a benefits pool. When you here of the $35/hr writeoff, that worker is only getting $17.50, the rest of his money is in “the pool”. ie: When your employer tells you that maybe 25% of your compensation is paid into the medical benefits pool, same thing. YOU don’t get to see or touch any of this money, the Republicans are trying to put a tax on it anyway, but theoretically it’s really there. At least, for tax writeoff purposes. The management tho, as part of THEIR compensation package, are entitled to free medical, dental, etc benefits, as are their families etc, that gets paid even after retirement. This all comes out of that same benefits pool. Also untaxed to them. The management folk may complain and wring their hands about the system and the cost of benefits … but they’re in Congress right now desperately defending this very same system.
I think what happened is that we (and they) just got too used to crap being acceptable. Hi! My name is Harry0, and I had a Taurus. Large amounts of screwed on plastic molding covering up major sloppy fit and finish issues. A decomposing frame structure that the Ford lawyers exempted my state out of the recall fix because we don’t have enough salt on the roads. The dealership fixing my blown head gasket with Barsleak- and “ascertaining” that the bearings were still OK- both without ever removing a bolt. The dealership charging $250 per quaterly service- without doing the service (and without telling me) if I came in more than 50 miles early.
And this isn’t a special case. This is pretty much SOP for American cars, and especially almost all Fords. This isn’t any UAW worker’s fault- it’s the management; this is SOP for any American car owner. Their business strategy seems based more on “What can we get away with” than it does on customer satisfaction. Ask your neighbor if he cares whether or not a UAW worker worked on his car. He’d probably buy a Ford or a Chevy if he thought he could trust it! He looks at HIS neighbors- that guy’s Toyota, that women’s Honda, even that flake’s Kia- they just keep on running. That other guy’s American car is in the shop- again- being worked on by the cheapest wrenchholder that stealership could find. Supposedly being overseen by that one old guy with an office with a couple of certifictes on the wall.
Many people ought a new American car every 2 or 3 years because that’s about when they started to break down. We knew that, the mechanics told us that, and we went along with it. Other people bought import cars- and 5 (and 10!) years later, and well- they’re still thnking of keeping them. My kids’ 20 something Toyota still runs clean quiet and dependable, and gets better MPG than at east half of the newer Fords.
We voted, dude. With our money. I want to drive a car that after 50k miles or so I’ll not worry if it’ll make it to the weekend. I want my wife to drive a car she can depend on, and not worry that this may be one of “those” cars. I want to take my family out in a car I can trust to get me there and back without opening the hood- again. The Taurus wan’t it. The new Malibu isn’t it. Compared to those cars the Lexus is magic. Don’t blame the UAW worker: he’s only doing his job. Blame the bad management for foisting ever more crap upon us.
If they made decent cars, dependable cars, with good MPG, with dealerships that care about repeab usiness thru customer satisfaction, there’d be customers. They’d sell those cars. If Ford could make a car as good as a 10 year old F150, with 20+ MPG I might be interested. If Chevy or Chrysler made a car as good as a 10 year old Toyota that didn’t have such a short leash to the repair shop I might be interested. But they don’t.

Sorry you misunderstood my comment Bill. I was referring to all of us who suck on the “national teat” as you say. All those programs that we enjoy, and look forward to in our retirement are yes, dare I say it? Socialized programs, also known as hand outs from Uncle Sam. Corporate welfare was not invented by Bush or Obama, It has a long and illustrious history in American Politics.I do laugh how many of my friends go crazy over the auto company bailouts; especially since they’re a drop in the bucket compared to the bank/wall street bailouts!